Petroleum project economics and risk management training. Sunday 10th september 2017 thursday 14th september 2017 9. Project economics and risk analysis presents the process energy companies follow to analyze the economic attractiveness of capital investments, whether it is an investment in oil and gas exploration, a new power plant or lng facility, a new refinery, or simply the capital expansion of an existing facility. Risk identification and analysis is a critical step in any investment decision. Economics is the primary link between basics of petroleum. In the last century, there have been many challenges in iranian oil industry such as internal and. To develop an optimal procedure and system for project risk management and interaction with the project management plan. This training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit.
Project risk management using multiple criteria decision. Petroleum project economics and risk analysis training in london uk, dubai united arab emirates, kuala lumpur malaysia, istanbul turkey, france paris. During the 1990s, many international petroleum companies improved their exploration performance significantly by using principles of risk analysis and portfolio management. Exploration geologic risk assessment and prospect evaluation. Evaluation of projects in oil sector probabilistic approach. Oil and gas projects have special characteristics that need a different technique in project management.
Merak decision tool kit decision analysis and risk management software offers the power to weigh the economic uncertainties inherent in any project decision, measure the effect of those uncertainties on the expected value, and see just how risky your options really are. Dr wallace is dba program director and course director of the edinburgh business school ebs mbadba courses in project management, strategic risk management and alliances and partnerships. The operator leveraged oracle s primavera p6 enterprise project portfolio management solution along with oracle s primavera risk analysis solution to tackle the development challenge. T4 case study chartered institute of management accountants. Uncertainty and risk analysis in petroleum exploration and production saul b.
The government will only share in the profits when oil and gas are actually produced. Identifying the risks and uncertainties of the project application of risk management methods in mitigating the identified risks of the project objectives the primary objectives of the training course are to. To assist project risk management of bid boland ii gas refinery plant currently managed by iranian companies. And, yet oil and gas companies, like service companies, simply cannot be risk averse. The main driver of the model results is the change in commodity price. Research on risk management of petroleum operations. Pdf petroleum economics, risk and opportunity analysis. Proposal generally, todays oil and gas projects are complex, highrisk. His professional experience includes 20 years in leading and conducting projects of various sizes and scopes involving the application of decision and risk analysis methodologies in the energy and environmental sectors, and 10 years as a practicing petroleum geophysicist.
Petroleum economics net present value internal rate of. Contract management staff, managers, and supervisors, planning. This petroleum project economics and risk management course is a highly interactive training solution that introduces delegates to a structured approach in project investment appraisal, with a specific focus on the oil and gas industry. Carry out a comprehensive economic evaluation study for any petroleum related project including risk analysis and sensitivity study using spreadsheet. Zuofa, t and ochieng, e g 2011 project managers perception of risk factors in heavy engineering construction projects. Keywords uncertainty, risk analysis, decision analysis, portfolio. Economics modeling for petroleum exploration and production projects considering risk and imprecise data thesis pdf available january 2016 with 10,901 reads how we measure reads. Make the right investment decision in the presence of risk.
Dec 24, 2015 introduction to project economics in oil and gas exploration and production upstream industry, including basic project economics method and example of calcul slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. This event took place on 10th september 2017, so you wont be able to enquire. Risk management in petroleum industry construction projects in. Fundamental to the success of all project management is extensive economic. Lecture sessions introduction to petroleum economics and energy business environment introduction to financial statements and measures of performance project management fundamentals. A ftse 10 oil and gas exploration organisation appointed jba to develop a risk management system. The current literature on construction project risk management consists of mainly four types of work standards for risk management practices, project risk management practices of countries including ranking of risk factors, case studies of organisations and industries using conceptual mathematical models and applications of risk responses. Petroleum economics, risk and opportunity analysis.
How to reduce costs and manage risk in the upstream oil. Project management in the oil and gas industry wiley. Introduction to petroleum economics is about the process of gathering project data, calculating whether a project should proceed and delivering recommendations. Risk and uncertainty impact decision making by the projects chosen, how they are developed, and their economic performance. Petroleum project economics 06 sensitivity analysis. Note that the potential change in commodity price has a range of outcomes, while the other risks are modelled as onceoff events. Risk management case study oil and gas industry page 7 of 18 the table below shows the individual effects of each modelled risk. Petroleum project economics and risk analysis training. Risk uncertainty management objectives for energy projects are to. Risk analys is classification of petroleum operation risk is.
Together, the two solutions provide a consistent and accurate planning environment across the enterprise, taking into account project risk, resources, and budget. Advanced oil and gas project economics, risk and decision analysis. This practical course covers the fundamental aspects of upstream petroleum economics and risk analysis through a variety of lectures and workshop exercises. The art and science of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk factors throughout the life of. The development of any country depends on the development of the energy reserve through investing in oil and gas projects through onshore and offshore exploration, drilling, and increasing facility capacities. Techniques for opportunity evaluation and assessment of risk and uncertainty. Zhang yanting and xing liyun energy procedia 5 2011 2330 2334 2331 the pillar industry of our country, so it is very important to strengthen risk management, especially risk control of petroleum operations. This course is designed, developed, and will be delivered under.
Risk analys is classification of petroleum operation risk is different from investment riskas. When executing a petroleum related project, such as. Register enquiry send to a colleague print download pdf. Therefore, these projects need a sort of management match with their. This course will introduce a variety of fundamental petroleum economic principles including revenue, expenditures, fiscal systems, risk analysis, and investment analysis.
Tim nieman has 30 years of experience as a risk and decision analyst, economist and petroleum scientist. Project management for the oil and gas industry dr william wallace bsc hons, msc, phd, mciob, mapm. The art and science of identifying, analyzing and responding to risk factors throughout the life of a project. It discusses the science of petroleum economics, starting from squareone, the tools of the trade that petroleum economists use, day in and day out, and also its application.
This highly interactive and scenariobased training programme will enable you to apply a structured approach to project justification, investment appraisal and decisionmaking in the upstream petroleum business. However, uncertainty and risk analysis are becoming more popular as new hardware and software advances appear, contributing in an important manner to clarify the range and the impacts of new discoveries as well as development and production assets. Furthermore, dey 2009 noted that existing literature on construction risk management primarily consists of only empirical researches and conceptual frameworks utilising different risk management tools and techniques. Apr 19, 2012 risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures peter r. Petroleum project economics and risk analysis ihrdc. Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration ventures peter r. This practical training course will enable delegates from all technical and commercial disciplines to understand the theories and methods used to value oil and gas projects. Provides an overview of the key financial and economic means of project performance. Introduction to petroleum economics print and digital. This special issue is dedicated to show some contributions and developments of risk analysis applied to petroleum exploration, field appraisal and development, production forecast under uncertainty, decision making process, portfolio management, and real options approach. All these tasks occur in the early stages of capital planning and failure to adequately evaluate these elements can lead to heavy losses. This course is an excellent introduction to the fundamentals of petroleum economics.
Evaluation of projects in the oil sector analysis and results of a probabilistic approach. Scribd is the worlds largest social reading and publishing site. The relationship between petroleum economics and risk analysis. It meets these aims by approving the groups strategy and ensuring that the necessary resources are in place to achieve the agreed strategic. Economics econ210d presentation 6 sensitivity analysis for changing variables week 6 changing variables economic evaluations are made based on assumed parameters these parameters are likely to change over life of field such changes would affect the feasibility of the project sensitivity analysis for changing variables week 6. It will allow participants to construct computerbased economic models, incorporate relevant cashflow data and draw conclusions to aid decisionmaking.
Furthermore, jba were selected to assist in the management of the risk register for a large transformation. An integrated project assessment resources, chance, economics under conditions of uncertainty. Key field development considerations efficient monitoring of reservoir performance. Esanda engineering petroleum economics and risk analysis. Materials supply epc contract should specify responsibility for providing critical materials and supplies many large projects in a small region can squeeze supplies shortages andor price increases can significantly affect project economics for responsible party. Risk analysis and management of petroleum exploration. Petroleum project economics and risk management 5 day training course. Taking the individual profiles and the values for the remaining variables that have an impact on project economics, we obtain the values for the output variable, the npv.
Carry out a comprehensive economic evaluation study for any petroleum related project including risk. Analysis of major challenges to the implementation of oil. Petroleum economics free download as powerpoint presentation. Procs 27th annual arcom conference, 57 september 2011, bristol, uk, association of researchers in construction management, 985993. Introduction to project economics in oil and gas upstream. The course provides a comprehensive overview of the practices of exploration and development petroleum economics and its application in valuing oil and gas assets to aid corporate decisions. Merak decision tool kit provides a toolbox of complementary modules. If no oil or gas is produced, then the entire test drilling loss rests with the oil and gas company. Economics modeling for petroleum exploration and production projects considering risk and imprecise data. Project risk management case study j boyle associates. Uncertainty and risk analysis in petroleum exploration and.
The stark reality is that the risk of failure can exceed the value of the project. Introduction to project economics in oil and gas exploration and production upstream industry, including basic project economics method and example of calcul slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. The board remains focused on strong corporate governance and effective risk management. The board is accountable to shareholders for sustainable financial performance and longterm shareholder value. Energy project economics and measures of performance project cash flow analysis, discounting cash flow to obtain present value and internal rate of return, the cost of capital and the effect of debt financing, other measures of project performance. Pdf economics modeling for petroleum exploration and. The project objectives, or the measure of the project success or failure, are often defined in terms of cost, schedule and technical performance. Suslick unicamp, institute of geosciences and center of petroleum studies. Petroleum economics, risk analysis and project management training in houston texas, london uk, dubai uae, lagos nigeria, luanda angola or johannesburg south africa.